The risk of escalating the Sino-US trade war is seriously increased. Once the worst situation of the United States' comprehensive tariff increase, it will have a certain impact on China's economic operation. This impact cannot be ignored or exaggerated.

According to the threat of Washington, the United States will eventually impose a 25% tariff on nearly $600 billion of all Chinese exports to the United States. In the actual situation, this certainly cannot be done. And even if some products add taxes, it does not mean that they cannot be sold to the United States. If half of the goods cannot be exported to the United States, this estimate is already very high.

China’s exports to the United States account for about 16% of China’s total exports. That is to say, after the United States comprehensively imposes tariffs, under very bad circumstances, there may be 8% of Chinese exports that need to be digested by conversion channels.

Some economists have analyzed that half of them can be digested with high probability. In this way, China will have 4% of its exports affected. Since the share of exports to the Chinese economy has been declining, this effect is certainly a small fraction of a few percent after it is converted into GDP.

The above analysis is generally calculated by conducting a full assessment of the impact of the US tariff war on China. But is the US government really able to impose tariffs on all Chinese exports to the United States and maintain it for more than a year? It is very difficult.

Adding a 10% tariff on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese products and a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods is a completely different concept. The United States imports more than one-fifth of its total imports from China. The Chinese may wish to think about it. If our government imposes a 25% tariff on more than one-fifth of imported goods, it will affect the way the Chinese economy operates and the people. What is the negative impact of life?